Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.638132 1.853985 2.083147 2.344084 2.632477 2.940976 3.295448
2024-12-29 1.423784 1.733022 2.081445 2.501277 2.991501 3.543830 4.211129
2025-01-05 1.167935 1.526107 1.953480 2.496773 3.164386 3.953058 4.949832
2025-01-12 0.981340 1.374734 1.870998 2.534918 3.390741 4.446873 5.837492
2025-01-19 0.815542 1.225589 1.772394 2.541486 3.579686 4.915122 6.742304
2025-01-26 0.712388 1.144819 1.752514 2.647929 3.908717 5.592221 7.975694
2025-02-02 0.617474 1.061262 1.718186 2.731054 4.216213 6.270872 9.274527
2025-02-09 0.527345 0.970300 1.661083 2.774948 4.473919 6.905830 10.570947
2025-02-16 0.453035 0.891905 1.612229 2.825084 4.745877 7.584874 11.986651
2025-02-23 0.373521 0.790108 1.511547 2.781794 4.871979 8.062673 13.151680
2025-03-02 0.299398 0.683128 1.385845 2.681105 4.896484 8.389019 14.117415
2025-03-09 0.256578 0.627177 1.340779 2.710485 5.133637 9.061481 15.659854
2025-03-16 0.212283 0.560657 1.269868 2.692752 5.303316 9.662417 17.172935
2025-03-23 0.187433 0.530703 1.264920 2.796111 5.695107 10.660189 19.400280
2025-03-30 0.151348 0.465611 1.178012 2.731860 5.781512 11.156874 20.850054
2025-04-06 0.126016 0.419864 1.123684 2.724373 5.971712 11.847313 22.675864
2025-04-13 0.103413 0.374473 1.061527 2.691698 6.110228 12.458057 24.410133
2025-04-20 0.090814 0.353444 1.052107 2.770019 6.473256 13.498447 26.960028
2025-04-27 0.078924 0.330834 1.034690 2.828351 6.802066 14.500703 29.507992
2025-05-04 0.067206 0.304744 1.003329 2.850319 7.057833 15.384765 31.899095
2025-05-11 0.057633 0.282500 0.977740 2.882274 7.337762 16.334832 34.469963
2025-05-18 0.046698 0.250639 0.918405 2.822584 7.411746 16.888242 36.334602
2025-05-25 0.036356 0.215993 0.842458 2.708183 7.350082 17.165443 37.690504